Strategic Advisor Fredrick Okango has warned that escalating tensions in the Middle East, where the US and Israel have traded missile attacks with Iran, could trigger economic and diplomatic shocks for Kenya, citing disrupted trade in flowers, tea and coffee, rising oil prices, and grounded flights through Dubai and Qatar.
Speaking on Radio Generation on Monday, Okango said Kenyans in the Middle East are already anxious, though the government has moved to provide support.
“As we speak, they are worried, but the government has given to those people emergency contacts and what to do when they are there during this time,” he said, adding that authorities are prioritising the safety of citizens in the diaspora.
Okango pointed to Kenya’s strong export ties with the region, noting that any prolonged conflict would have direct economic consequences.
“If you remember, Kenya exports flowers, coffee, tea and many other things to the Middle East. So in terms of trade, again, this has been affected. Those are the direct effects to Kenya,” he said.
He further warned that a sustained crisis could push up global oil prices, placing a heavier burden on developing economies. “If this war continues, chances are very high that poor countries are going to suffer,” he stated.
On diplomatic relations, Okango referenced the July 12, 2023, visit to Nairobi by former Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, during which bilateral agreements were signed.
“Remember, on 12th of July, 2023, the president of Iran was in this country signing bilateral deals with our president. Again today, that country is under war. Then, for sure, there is a serious impact,” he said.
He also highlighted disruptions in travel and business, saying reports indicate that airports in Dubai have been shut and Qatar Airways flights grounded, effectively halting movement. “It means no one can move, no one can do anything. The businessmen that are traveling from Kenya to Dubai, Dubai to Kenya are stranded…I saw the government of Dubai is now meeting the costs for staying in the airport, food and accommodation. That is very good,” he noted.
Okango described the unfolding crisis as one with potentially global ramifications. “This is not just a war that is global and is likely to affect very many countries. You’re also likely to see others coming in — China, Russia — we don’t know, but we hope that we get to a level where the world is stable and things are normalising,” he said.
On Kenya’s preparedness, Okango maintained that while the country is not directly involved in the conflict, it must brace for economic and geopolitical shocks. “This is not our war, but we are fighters… the only way to defend ourselves is through economic shocks, social shocks, the geopolitics around this war,” he said.
He expressed confidence in the government’s response, adding, “I can confidently say that the government is doing everything possible to ensure that we are safe.”
The United States and Israel on Saturday launched coordinated strikes on Iran after weeks of tension over Tehran’s nuclear programme, saying the operation targets an “imminent threat.”
Iranian state media confirmed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed, as Donald Trump wrote, “He was unable to avoid our Intelligence and Highly Sophisticated Tracking Systems,” calling it “the single greatest chance” for Iranians to reclaim their country.
